| 02 March 2011
With the Pac-10 tournament just a week away, OSU has a lot to work on. It won't be easy as they travel to Arizona this weekend, first playing the Wildcats in Tucson on Thursday, then the Sun Devils in Tempe on Saturday.
The Beavers opened to a 2-0 record in the Pac-10 by beating both Arizona and Arizona State in the first weekend of conference play, but since those victories at Gill Coliseum in Corvallis, OSU is 3-11. For many people, the Beavers are the biggest disappointment in the Pac-10 this season. But the season's not over, and a run through the Pac-10 tournament in Los Angeles next weekend isn't likely, but it's not impossible, either.
First, though, the Arizona teams are out for revenge. Below, a few speculative thoughts on how the Beavers might come out of the desert with a win or two.
Notes
Defensive Keys in Tucson: The Arizona Wildcats, No. 18 in the nation, are not an easy matchup for anyone this season, let alone the Beavers. Led by forward Derrick Williams, the Wildcats have an efficient inside-outside offensive game; guard Lamont Jones scored 20 points in the teams' first game, and Williams had 16. This likely means the Beavers won't be playing much man-to-man defense, won't leave Brandt and Burton alone in the post to battle Williams.
OSU will need to play a solid 2-3 zone, and if or when the 1-3-1 pressure zone doesn't work, coach Craig Robinson needs to adjust to a matchup zone that allows for some one-on-one pressure full court. If the 1-3-1 is creating turnovers, great. If Robinson will play some situational man-to-man, great.
The OSU guards need to keep Arizona's guards in front of them; doing so will mean that post defenders can stay in position on Williams and others at the bottom of the zone.
Finally, OSU has to be physical -- inside on Williams, and on the perimeter. If they have any luck, the officiating will be more favorable for OSU than it was last weekend.
Offensive Keys in Tucson: This applies all around Oregon right now, for the Blazers, the Ducks, and the Beavers: run the offense through the post, controlling the pace, and the team has a chance to win the game. Leave the heavy lifting to the perimeter players alone, and it could get ugly quickly. In OSU's early-season wins over the Arizona teams, Joe Burton scored 17 (against ASU) and 16 points (against Arizona). Sometimes, it's truly that simple.
OSU is 0-7 on the road in Pac-10 play, with a current RPI national ranking of 228. The Wildcats are 15-0 at home this year, with an RPI of 17. This could get ugly no matter what the Beavers try offensively.
Defensive Keys in Tempe: If the Beavers can keep the Sun Devils' offense on the perimeter like they did in Corvallis on Dec. 30, they stand a chance on Saturday in Tempe. Even then, if Ty Abbott and Jamelle McMillan get a combined 12 looks at open threes -- as they did in the first meeting -- and the OSU 1-3-1 starts to look like a series of orange cones for the Sun Devils to run around, they could shoot the Beavers out of this game.
Effort hasn't been the Beavers' problem this season. The team's inability to adjust and play consistently while adjusting -- from individual players, to the starting unit, to coach Robinson -- however, has allowed teams with less talent to blow away the Beavers in some games. That could happen in Tempe. Or, OSU could find some success with the 1-3-1 by creating turnovers, could guard shooters from the 2-3 halfcourt zone, and could move to lockdown man-to-man defense down the stretch. I have no doubt that the Beavers can shut down ASU playing man-to-man. Whether or not that happens on Saturday might determine whether or not the Beavers head into the Pac-10 tournament with confidence.
Offensive Keys in Tempe: Good defense might be the best offense against the Sun Devils. ASU is only 2-14 in the Pac-10 this season, and if the Beavers can slow down a Sun Devils offense that needs to run, they should be able to generate enough of their own offense to win on Saturday.
In halfcourt sets, it's still crucial against ASU that the Beavers get touches deep in the post for Devon Collier, Joe Burton, Omari Johnson, and Angus Brandt. This should open opportunities for Jared Cunningham, Calvin Haynes, Ahmad Starks, and Roberto Nelson to make plays -- assuming Nelson sees more minutes than he did in OSU's last game. The talent gap between these two teams this season is substantial, and solid (read: adjusting, flexible, smart) defense should generate enough offense for the Beavers to defeat the Sun Devils.
photo: ethan erickson
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